Insider Threats Spike During Holiday Periods: What HTFM™ Reveals About Human Risk in 2026
- Paolo Scrofani
- Jul 7
- 1 min read
The week of July 4th highlighted a familiar pattern in supply chain security: when facilities slow down, insider threats tend to increase. Multiple distribution centers reported unauthorized yard access incidents using legitimate employee badges, with thieves exploiting reduced staffing and lower vigilance during the holiday period.
These events are rarely random. Economic pressures, fatigue from overtime, and high-value freight sitting longer than usual can create conditions where human behavior shifts and vulnerabilities emerge.
TruckWarden’s Human Temperament Forecasting Model (HTFM™) was developed as a cross-sector behavioral forecasting tool designed to deliver Human Temperament Scores (HTS™) by location and time. Powered by economic, psychological, and environmental data, HTFM™ is built to support simulation, planning, and research — helping organizations better understand potential human risk factors.
Key indicators observed during holiday slowdowns include:
Increased badge sharing or tailgating during low-traffic shifts
Unusual access patterns during off-hours
Higher risk of employee collusion when freight sits unattended
At TruckWarden, we don’t just identify threats — we work to help you stay ahead of them. Our Cargo Theft Prevention Training Certificate equips teams with practical tools to recognize red flags and strengthen daily operations, while our Human Temperament Forecasting Model (HTFM™) serves as a behavioral forecasting tool to support simulation, planning, and proactive risk awareness.
While the holiday slowdown has passed, the underlying human risk factors remain present year-round. Tools like HTFM™ represent an important step toward more informed planning and stronger prevention strategies.
Stay vigilant. Train your teams. Forecast the risk.
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